Over at Nature News, Erika Check Hayden has a post about a recent Science Translational Medicine paper by Bert Vogelstein and colleages looking at the potential predictive power of genetics. The take-home message from the study (or at least the message that has been taken home by, e.g., this NYT article) is that DNA does not perfectly determine which disease or diseases you may get in the future. This take home message is true, and to me relatively obvious (in the same way that smoking doesn’t perfectly determine lung cancer, or body weight and dietary health doesn’t perfectly determine diabetes status).
A lot of researchers have had a pretty negative reaction to this paper (see Erika’s storify of the twitter coverage). There are lots of legitimate criticism (see Erika’s post for details), but to be honest I suspect that a lot of this is a mixture of indignation and sour grapes that this paper, a not particularly original or particularly well done attempt to answer a question that many other people have answered before, got so much press (including a feature in the NYT). A very large number of people have tried to quantify the potential predictive power of genetics for a number of years – why was there no news feature for me and Jeff, or David Clayton, or Naomi Wray and Peter Visccher, or any of the other large number of stat-gen folks who have been doing exactly these studies for years. ANGER RISING and so forth.
But of course, the reason is relatively obvious. Continue reading ‘Identical twins usually do not die from the same thing’
To celebrate 10 years since the back-to-back publications of complete human genomes in Science and Nature, Science has published series of articles looking back at the last 10 years of genomics, and forward to the future. The article contains short essays from Francis Collins and Craig Venter, the former talking about some of the successes of medical sequencing (including giving a name and photograph to the exome-sequenced IBD patient I 
Of particular interest is an article by Eliot Marshall on why genomics hasn’t yet had a large effect on medical practice, and what needs to be done to allow the genomic revolution to trickle into medical care. He argues that scientists and doctors need to meet each other half way; scientists need to focus more on showing the direct clinical utility of genomics, whereas doctors need to be more ready to accept new technologies and discoveries, and adapt the way they practice medicine to make full use of them. [LJ]
I have to say, this isn’t going to be an easy job; assembling a high-quality reference genome of an under-studied organism is a lot of work, especially using Illumina’s short read technology, and identifying and making sense of tumour mutations is equally difficult. Add to this the fact that the tumour genome is from a different individual to the healthy individual, this all adds up to a project of unprecedented scope. On the other hand, the key to saving a species from extinction could rest on this sticky bioinformatics problem, and if anyone is in the position to deal with it, it’s the Cancer Genome Project. [LJ]
The authors calculated odds ratios for each variant in each ethnic group, and looked for evidence of heterogeneity in odds ratios. They find that, in general, the odds ratios tend to show surprisingly little variation between ethnic groups; the direction of risk was the same in almost all cases, and the mean odds ratio was roughly equal across populations (the authors note that this pretty effectively shoots down David Goldstein’s “synthetic association” theory of common variation). One interesting exception was that the effect size of the known T2D variants was significantly larger in Japanese Americans, who had a mean odds ratio of 1.20, compared to 1.08-1.13 for other ethnic groups. The graph to the left shows the distribution of odds ratios in European and Japanese Americans.
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